(1. 北京科技大學(xué) 土木與資源工程學(xué)院，北京 100083；
2. 金屬礦山高效開(kāi)采與安全教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，北京 100083)
摘 要: 針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)礦山生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃編制忽略品位不確定性造成的地質(zhì)資源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題，提出構(gòu)建基于條件模擬和隨機(jī)規(guī)劃的地下礦山生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集成優(yōu)化模型。條件模擬以一組等概率的礦體模擬實(shí)現(xiàn)反映品位估值的不確定性，并通過(guò)隨機(jī)規(guī)劃將地質(zhì)品位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的量化評(píng)估直接集成到礦山生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃優(yōu)化建模過(guò)程。在最大化經(jīng)濟(jì)收益的同時(shí)有效衡量和降低由于地質(zhì)不確定性帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提高生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的可行性，實(shí)現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃編制的科學(xué)可靠和合理有效。以某地下黃金礦山的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃編制為應(yīng)用案例，對(duì)未來(lái)12個(gè)時(shí)期的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行優(yōu)化。結(jié)果表明：模型在優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的同時(shí)可對(duì)地質(zhì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行有效管控，為礦山生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃中地質(zhì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估提供新的方法。
關(guān)鍵字: 品位不確定性；直接序貫?zāi)M；隨機(jī)規(guī)劃；生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃；地下礦山
（1. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;
2. Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines, Ministry of Education, Beijing100083, China）
Abstract:Traditional mine planning optimization ignores the presence of geological uncertainty causing most of the mine forecasts to be unrealistic. To overcome these problems, a risk-integrated mine planning framework was presented to optimize the mining production schedule based on conditional simulation and stochastic mixed integer programming. With conditional simulation, the risks from grade uncertainty in ore reserves can be measured and managed through a set of equally probable orebody realizations. And stochastic programming allows the integration of grade uncertainty into the production scheduling optimization process directly. The stochastic optimization model presented herein is to maximize the net present value and minimize the risk of deviation from operating and financial targets simultaneously. To demonstrate the applicability of the formulation, a long-term production scheduling case study on an underground gold mining complex was implemented. The results show that the capability of the model to control the effects of grade uncertainty, which provides a new method for mining risk evaluation.
Key words: grade uncertainty; direct sequential simulation; stochastic programming; production scheduling; underground mine
