(1. 中南大學(xué) 冶金與環(huán)境學(xué)院，長(zhǎng)沙 410083； 2. 江西理工大學(xué) 冶金與化學(xué)工程學(xué)院，贛州 341000)
摘 要: 采用logistic模型、群體平衡模型、物質(zhì)流分析方法分別對(duì)我國(guó)5種電器電子產(chǎn)品的平均擁有量和總擁有量、電子廢棄物及廢舊線路板的產(chǎn)生量、金屬資源存量及開(kāi)采潛力進(jìn)行研究。結(jié)果表明：到2030年，我國(guó)電視機(jī)、電腦和手機(jī)的擁有量將分別達(dá)到776.49、463.65和1702.84百萬(wàn)臺(tái)。我國(guó)5種典型電子廢棄物和廢舊電路板總產(chǎn)生量將分別達(dá)到280.73和29.92萬(wàn)t，廢舊電路板中金、銀、銅、錫、鉛和鍶的存量將分別達(dá)到119.5、305.7、60915、7897、5189和101.5 t。2015~2030年，我國(guó)典型電子廢棄物及廢舊電路板的產(chǎn)生量隨著更新?lián)Q代的速度加快、平均擁有量的增加、電器電子產(chǎn)品的使用壽命變短呈增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)，但增長(zhǎng)率較前15年(2001~2015)將放緩。
關(guān)鍵字: 電子廢棄物；廢舊線路板；群體平衡模型；物質(zhì)流分析；金屬資源；開(kāi)采潛力預(yù)測(cè)
（1. School of Metallurgy and Environment, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; 2. School of Metallurgy and Chemical Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China）
Abstract:The average and total possession amounts of typical electrical electronic products were estimated using the logistic model. The generation amount of typical electronic waste and waste printed circuit board (WPCB) were estimated using the population balance model (PBM). Stock of metal resources in WPCB and exploitation potentiality prediction were analyzed with substance flow analysis (SFA). The results indicate that the total possession amount of television, computer and mobile phone are going to reach to 776.49 million, 463.65 million, 1702.84 million, respectively, in 2030. Generation amount of the five typical electronic waste and WPCB are going to reach to 280.73×104 and 29.92×104 t, respectively, in 2030. The stock quantities of gold, silver, copper, tin, lead and strontium contain in WPCB will reach to 119.5, 305.7, 60915, 7897, 5189 and 101.5 t, respectively, in 2030. In the period from 2015 to 2030, the generation amount of typical electronic waste and WPCB are growing with constantly updating function, design of electronic products and gradual shortening of service lifespan. But the growing speed will slow down, compared with the past 15 years (2001-2015).
Key words: electronic waste; waste printed circuit board; population balance model; substance flow analysis; metal resources; exploitation potentiality prediction
