(1. 中南大學 資源與安全工程學院，長沙 410083；
2. 江西理工大學 應用科學學院，贛州 341000)
摘 要: 在關(guān)鍵塊體穩(wěn)定性的研究過程中，傳統(tǒng)方法需要通過力學試驗獲得巖體力學參數(shù)，然而由于巖體結(jié)構(gòu)復雜，力學試驗樣本數(shù)量有限，很難確定某一個力學參數(shù)的概率密度分布，嚴重影響傳統(tǒng)隨機概率可靠性分析方法的準確性。當采用區(qū)間非概率可靠性分析方法計算可靠度時，通常采用區(qū)間數(shù)來表示參數(shù)的取值，能夠較好地反映樣本數(shù)據(jù)較少時參數(shù)取值的不確定性，確定某一參數(shù)的取值范圍比確定參數(shù)的概率分布容易。根據(jù)區(qū)間數(shù)學理論，采用區(qū)間數(shù)表示參數(shù)取值，在分析參數(shù)取值特性基礎上，采用巖體區(qū)間強度值，以此反映圍巖可靠性分析的不確定性特征。通過探討區(qū)間非概率可靠性指標求解方法，建立爆破荷載下區(qū)間可靠性綜合分析模型。將提出的方法應用到具體工程中。結(jié)果表明：區(qū)間非概率可靠性分析與安全系數(shù)區(qū)間范圍和隨機可靠度相比，具有無需求解概率密度函數(shù)，通過較少樣本的區(qū)間表示即可實現(xiàn)可靠性分析，能夠表征關(guān)鍵塊體整體穩(wěn)定可靠特征的優(yōu)點。
關(guān)鍵字: 爆破荷載；損傷；巷道；關(guān)鍵塊體；區(qū)間非概率可靠性
（1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. School of Applied Science, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China）
Abstract:The mechanical parameters of rock obtained from laboratory tests are vital important to the stability investigations on key blocks. However, due to the restraints from the complicated rock structure and the limitation of available test data, it is difficult to determine the accurate probabilistic distribution of any mechanical parameter. Therefore, problems might be encountered in the traditional reliability analysis characterized by random probability. In the reliability indication process characterized by non-probabilistic reliability with interval theory, parameters are represented by the intervals which reflect the uncertainty caused by the limited sample data. In addition, it is easier to determine the value range rather than the probabilistic distribution of specific parameters. Based on the interval mathematical theory and the related analysis of parameter properties, the uncertainty of the reliability analysis of surrounding rock was indicated by the interval values of rock strength. The comprehensive analytical model was established by probing the computing method for the index of interval non-probability. Moreover, the interval value of safety index and the random reliability are obtained by applying proposed method in a specific engineering scenario. The following results were concluded, safety analysis index can only be used in the single stability evaluation of a specific parameter. While systematic evaluation of key blocks can not be conducted by applying safety index analysis. The engineering application of the random probabilistic method is restrained by the obtained result varying in a large range. The difficulties encountered in the indication process of probabilistic density function and the great data volume are needed, the determination of the probabilistic density function is not required when applying non-linear reliability analysis based on interval theory and, thus, the reliability analysis can be conducted based on interval presentation of limited sample data. The entire reliability characteristics of key blocks stability can be represented accordingly.
Key words: blasting loads; damage; tunnels; key block; non-probabilistic reliability analysis applying interval theory
