Abstract:The risk assessment right from the source of emissions can effectively guide the pollution control. A model was established, consisting of four part: source estimation, environmental fate analysis, exposure analysis and risk assessment. The human health risk, ecological risk and total risk of lead emissions were assessed. The factors were estimated to indicate the environmental decrease and exposure probability. Of all the 1887 t emissions in China in 2010 (quantified in the previous work), it is turned out 1.3 t reached human bodies (0.9 mg/ca), and 2.7 t reached the ecosystem. Lead mainly came from the Use stage for the source while lead causing risk mainly came from the Waste Management & Recycling and Production stages. As for chemical forms, PbO contributed most to the human health risk and PbSO₄ contributed most to the ecological risk. PbSO₄, PbO and Pb altogether contributed 71% to the total risk, indicating these three chemicals should be taken priority for the risk management.

Key words: lead; source; human health risk; ecological risk; total risk; life cycle