Abstract:In the application of regression analysis method to model dam deformation, the ill-condition problem occurred in coefficient matrix always prevents an accurate modeling mainly due to the multicollinearity of the variables. Independent component regression (ICR) was proposed to model the dam deformation and identify the physical origins of the deformation. Simulation experiment shows that ICR can successfully resolve the problem of ill-condition and produce a reliable deformation model. After that, the method is applied to model the deformation of the Wuqiangxi Dam in Hunan province, China. The result shows that ICR can not only accurately model the deformation of the dam, but also help to identify the physical factors that affect the deformation through the extracted independent components.

Key words: dam deformation analysis; independent component regression; principal component regression; ill-condition problem; interpreting of dam deformation