(1. 中國科學(xué)院 測量與地球物理研究所動力大地測量學(xué)開放實驗室， 武漢 430077；
2. 山東礦業(yè)學(xué)院 地球科學(xué)系， 泰安 271019；
3. 徐州師范大學(xué) 技術(shù)教育學(xué)院， 徐州 221011)
摘 要: 在對礦山井筒變形多次實際監(jiān)測和理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上， 有針對性地提出了井筒變形的數(shù)學(xué)模型和變形模式分析方案，描述了井筒變形的5個子模式數(shù)學(xué)模型， 闡述了變形模型中的參數(shù)解算和模型中各影響因素的分析方法， 并給出了應(yīng)用實例。結(jié)果表明， 該數(shù)學(xué)模型概括了井筒變形的具體特性， 能夠反映變形狀態(tài)、 影響因素及其影響程度。
關(guān)鍵字: 井筒變形； 數(shù)學(xué)模型； 多元統(tǒng)計分析
（1. Laboratory of Dynamics Geodesy, Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, P.R.China；
2. Department of Geosciences, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Taian 271019, P.R.China;
3. College of Technique Education, Xuzhou Normal University, Xuzhou 221011, P.R.China）
Abstract: Analysis on shaft deformation monitoring data is an important task formine shaft monitoring and many analysis methods in this field have been reported. Because of various influence factors on shaft deformation, it is very difficult and necessary to research the influence degreesof each factor and the overall influence levels of all factors. Multivariated statistical analysis is a very efficient means for solving the above problems. For the further research of mine shaft deformation and based on the analysts of lots of practical examples, a model based on all filial patterns, a pattern analysis method and an affection pattern analysis method were proposed and described in detail. The effectiveness of the methods were well verified with an example.
Key words: shaft deformation; mathematical model; multivariated statistics analysis
