(1.中國科學(xué)院 武漢巖土力學(xué)研究所，
巖土力學(xué)重點實驗室，武漢 430071；
2.山東科技大學(xué)，泰安 271019；
3. 東北大學(xué) 資源與土木工程學(xué)院，沈陽 110004)
摘 要: 針對傳統(tǒng)礦震預(yù)測理論和方法存在的問題及礦震本身的非線性動力學(xué)特征，基于胞映射理論和突變理論提出了“礦震系統(tǒng)的胞映射-突變預(yù)測模型”。該模型既考慮了礦震系統(tǒng)的非線性動力學(xué)本質(zhì)，又利用胞映射理論消除了初值的隨機(jī)性和礦震系統(tǒng)本身的內(nèi)在隨機(jī)性對預(yù)測結(jié)果的影響。分析實例表明，該模型可以更精確而客觀地識別和預(yù)測礦震演化過程中的突變行為。
關(guān)鍵字: 礦震；非線性動力學(xué)；胞映射-突變預(yù)測模型
forecasting model of mine
quake system
WANG Yong-jia3
（1.Key Laboratory of Rock and Soil Mechanics,
Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,
The Chinese Academy of Science,Wuhan 430071,China;
2.Shandong University of Science and Technology,
Tai′an 271019, China;
3.School of Resource and Civil Engineering,
Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,China）
Abstract:Mine quake is a dynamic phenomenon of rock mass which is very harmful to mining. In allusion to the disadvantages of traditional forecasting theories and the nonlinear dynamic features of mine quake, “cell-mapping-catastrophic forecasting model of mine quake” is set up based on the cell-mapping theory and catastrophic theory. The nonlinear dynamic essences of mine quake is considered by the model, and the influences of random of initialized values of variables and the internal randomicity of mine quake on forecasting results are subtly eliminated with the cell-mapping theory. The example shows that the model can distinguish and forecast the catastrophic behaviors of the evolution of mine quake more accurately and objectively.
Key words: mine quake;nonlinear dynamics;cell-mapping -catastrophic forecasting model
