(石家莊鐵道學(xué)院 交通工程系， 石家莊 050043)
摘 要: 根據(jù)最小方差預(yù)測理論，提出了用最小方差預(yù)測法預(yù)測巖土工程變形，對其建模機理和準則進行了論述，并對預(yù)測模型的優(yōu)化方法進行了研究和探討。在實際應(yīng)用中，將最小方差預(yù)測法與其它預(yù)測方法進行了比較。結(jié)果表明，該方法建模簡便，計算簡單，模型更新優(yōu)化快，能取得較高的預(yù)測精度。
關(guān)鍵字: 最小方差預(yù)測； 變形預(yù)測； 模型優(yōu)化
least square error forecasting method
（Department of Traffic Engineering， Shijiazhuang Railway Institute，
Shijiazhuang 050043, P.R.China）
Abstract:A method for forecasting geotechnical engineering distortion by applying the least square error forecasting theory was presented，and the model optimization was studied. In real application， modelling is more simple and easier，and model optimizing is faster than other forecasting methods. The method can get better forecasting precision.
Key words: least square error forecasting; forecasting distortion; model optimized
